The DIHK survey “Going International 2026” highlights the significant pressure facing the German export sector.

Shortly before HANNOVER MESSE, the DIHK published the latest results of a survey of 2,400 internationally active German companies. The firms report a record number of trade barriers. The U.S. is perceived as a “brake,” while India and Mercosur are brightening the mood.

More than two-thirds of companies active abroad (69 percent) are experiencing an increase in trade barriers—more than ever before since the survey began. Global business expectations remain negative overall. The survey was conducted in February, before the war in the Middle East began.

We will not be able to maintain our export forecast of one percent

The DIHK’s export forecast for 2026 had previously assumed growth of one percent. The calculation presented by DIHK Head of Foreign Trade Dr. Volker Treier during the survey’s presentation is sobering: According to the DIHK’s rule of thumb, a ten-percent rise in oil prices lasting over twelve months would cost Germany half a percentage point of economic growth. “But the oil price is currently 50 percent above the 2025 annual average. We won’t be able to maintain our export forecast of one percent under these circumstances.”

High tariffs, political volatility, and legal uncertainties are making long-term planning increasingly difficult

Treier is particularly concerned about global logistics: “Container shipping and air freight will become significantly more expensive.” This comes on top of the increased tariff burdens, which nearly two-thirds of the surveyed companies are complaining about. 86 percent of them are feeling the effects particularly acutely in trade with the U.S. Consequently, sentiment has deteriorated significantly. For many German companies, business with the U.S. has collapsed, and expectations for the current year are at a record low. “The U.S. is becoming a risk factor,” says Treier. “High tariffs, political volatility, and legal uncertainties are making long-term planning increasingly difficult.”

In addition to tariffs, non-tariff trade barriers in particular shape the day-to-day operations of many companies: local certification regulations (51 percent) and stricter safety requirements (37 percent) are cited particularly frequently. Export controls also pose a challenge for more than a third of companies (35 percent)—especially in business with the U.S. (41 percent) and China (29 percent).

However, 83 percent of companies also view EU regulations—such as supply chain requirements, reporting obligations, packaging rules, or the CO₂ border adjustment—as a burden on their international business. Treier: “This further weakens our companies in international competition.”

Diversification is no longer a strategic option, but a necessity

For the DIHK, the current situation increases the pressure to diversify: “Diversification is no longer a strategic option, but a necessity,” says Treier. “Those who broaden their market base become more resilient to political risks.” In the survey, where negative balances dominate business conditions and expectations worldwide, two bright spots stand out: India and Mercosur. The biggest outlier on the upside is India: a 17-percentage-point increase in business prospects—the best figure across the entire range of countries in the survey. Business prospects in Latin America improved from -8% to +5%—also a 13-percentage-point swing.

EU free trade agreements with India and Mercosur are fueling hopes for new growth momentum. Treier: “The ratification of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement is a much-needed signal of confidence for the German economy in an increasingly harsh geo-economic environment.”

When it comes to Mercosur, the focus is no longer just on export markets, but on sustainable partnerships for raw materials and energy. Treier particularly highlighted the potential of Brazil, this year’s partner country at HANNOVER MESSE. “I am very much looking forward to the trade fair.”

The end point of this supply chain does not lie beyond the Strait of Hormuz

Because Brazil possesses the raw materials Europe needs for decarbonization—iron ore, critical minerals, biomass. For Treier, this also leads to changes in the value chain: Brazil has the renewable energy to process these raw materials itself at an initial stage of value creation—for example, into green steel, using green hydrogen as a carrier, or into green industrial products: a model that enables investment in both directions. “And the endpoint of this supply chain does not lie beyond the Strait of Hormuz.”

During the press briefing, Treier also cited the “Middle Corridor through Central Asia” as a logistically necessary development path that policymakers must actively shape. This could complement the Europe-Africa axis, particularly with regard to critical minerals.